I think a distinction needs to be made between making the right decision based strictly on the numbers and making a decision based on the other factors involved. Not least of which would be your confidence in making the shot. We can say the numbers say go for it but if he is not confident in the shot whether it be due to the lie, hazards etc than the percentages shift. One thing we can't quantify is how your mentality affects the percentages. It definitely plays a role. Without water in play than it's a no brainer because a bad shot wouldn't cost you penalty stroke.
how many of the times that he went for it was he confident he could make the shot?
how many times did he go for it when he wasn't confident? and what was his score in both scenarios?
Too many unknowns to say for sure he was right or wrong, unless we include the disclaimer "by the numbers"
Edit: upon re-reading his quote it doesn't sound like the water was his concern, so he should have gone for it.